Why broken Britain is afraid to offend China

Spies running amok in Westminster with UK in hock to China

The issue of China and security has dominated the British political scene these past weeks. The root cause is that the UK is a poor country pretending to be rich. Those words should be repeated and repeated and repeated by activists in the movement until the message they contain is permanently lodged in the Scottish public mind. Once lodged, the unionist victory slogan of 2014 “Better Together” will be demolished; and the people more able to see the sense in a new slogan “Better Apart” or “Better Out.”

Repetition is a lesson I picked up in the course of my political life from the then Tory MP for Glasgow Cathcart, Teddy Taylor. He and I debated on a number of occasions during the 1979 referendum, and he made the same speech every time. When I told him, in a friendly way in private, that he had become boring he explained: “I may have made the same point a hundred times, but it will be the first time a new audience has heard it. And only by repeating it and repeating it will I get my message over.”

The point of driving home that the UK is broke is to upend the unionist case that wee Scotland has to shelter under the umbrella of the economically powerful UK/England. Once the Scottish public mind grasps that fact, it is much easier then to explain that being attached to a country that is broke and in decline, but will not admit it and so continues on a downward path, means we go down with it unless we depart.

The Chinese lesson happening in front of us and mark the UK difference

Mark the difference when a county that was previously in the first rank of world states goes into a spiral of decline, falls down the ranks and, in relation to powerful states old and new, becomes weak in dealing with them. The current issue of the UK and China over the non-prosecution of two alleged spies, and the dithering over approval or rejection of planning permission for the new massive Chinese Embassy in London, are two examples of UK weakness there for all to see.

Every state knows that depending on how important you are, the powerful will spy on you using its own under diplomatic cover, deep sleepers, agents recruited from locals, and breaking cyber security. The job of counter-intelligence is to catch them, and have the law prosecute them. This has been the practice for centuries. Even when big spy catching takes place, the states involved, if economically powerful enough, don’t let it sour relations for long. The US and China are good examples of that normality.

Between 2010 and 2012, the Chinese penetrated and rolled up and wiped out the US spy chain, capturing and executing at least 30 people. This only became public in 2017 when the New York Times broke the story. The USA has done the same to the networks of China’s spies, and as recently as August this year two more, US sailors, were caught and prosected. Whatever causes XI Jinping and Donald Trump cite for the present disputes between them, neither has complained of the other’s spies. Neither feels offended when their spies are caught and prosecuted. They have continued to conduct negotiations over a range of matters, and both are scheduled to meet soon in South Korea.

What about the UK? As the main ally of the USA, and permanent member of the UN Security Council, it is important to China, and of course it spies on the British state, using both cyber and human sources. If MI6 is doing its job, then it will have spies in China.

So why, unlike the USA and China, has the UK government and Parliament got their pants in a twist over letting free two alleged UK citizens spying for China; and why is the UK government in a blue funk about making a decision to approve or reject the new Chinese embassy which will have in-built super cyber spying capabilities?

Why is the UK government seemingly afraid of saying to China what everyone knows: “You spy on us, we spy on you, you catch and prosecute our spies and we do the same with yours. You are a security threat to us, and we are one to you. It is one of the inter-state facts of life, so now we can get on with being normal in our relations?”

Because it is a poor country reliant on China buying its bonds (debt), and reliant on China for investment it cannot itself generate, and so is afraid of offending the Chinese Communist Party. As one newspaper put it: “Chinese debt trap threat to Britain,” and another “Borrowing is giving China the whip hand.”

The China footprint in the Uk economy and academic life

China can spot a country that is financially weak, one where it can use its wealth to insert itself and promote its interests. Between 2005-2024 China’s investment in the UK has been US$104.7bn. France by comparison was only $35.2bn. China’s investment stake in the Hinkley Point C nuclear power station is 27.4% (France is the other partner). It will have a 65% stake in the proposed new nuclear power station in Essex. It has a 9% stake in Thames Water, 75% stake in Northumbrian Water. A Hong Kong based Chinese company completely owns the UK Power Networks that supplies SE and East England. China acquired a 10% stake in Heathrow Airport Holdings Ltd, a company that owns Stansted, Southampton, Glasgow and Aberdeen airports. China supplies 98% of all solar panels in the UK; and is linked to around one-third of all offshore wind projects.

The UK government does not publish who own its debt, but Edward Yardini, an experienced bond analyst, has warned that China could use its bond holding of UK debt to manipulate the UK government, when it wants to show it is unhappy with UK-China policy. In short being in a weak position because it is a poor country that China knows is not rich, it is now afraid to offend China.

Then there are our universities, reliant on Chinese students and direct cash input to their research activities. Oxford university has received £24m between 2020 and 2024. Cambridge around £19m.

Is the UK doing a modern Kowtow this time?

In 1793 Lord Macartnery, Britain’s first ambassador to China, refused to comply with the Qing expectation of him doing a Kowtow – prostration, kneeling and bowing so low as to have one’s head touching the ground. Instead, as a representative of a growing power, he said he would bend the knee as he did in front of “the King of England.”

That was then. This is now, with a British government now tied in knots, caught showing anxiety, if not actual fear, in case it deeply offends China over both the spy scandal and the response from an angry China if it rejects approval for the embassy. Not quite the Kowtow of old. A new modern version that British representatives this time are willing to do.